Preview: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far KIK BALL

Nearly three months after their quarter-final showdown at the French Open, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Bublik will face each other at the US Open for the first time in the round of 16 on Monday.

The reigning champion of that tournament on the men’s side overcame an early setback in round three to defeat Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3, while Bublik went the distance with Tommy Paul, ultimately winning 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1.

Match preview

Despite a slow start to his third round, Sinner persevered against the 27th-ranked Canadian on Saturday, winning six of his 13 break-point opportunities in the match.

At 24, the top-ranked player on the men’s draw became the fourth-youngest man to reach 20 wins at all four major tournaments, having made the final in the previous three played this year.

Not since the 2023 US Open has he been eliminated from a Grand Slam singles match in the last 16, losing in five sets to Alexander Zverev (4-6, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 3-6).

The aggressive baseliner has lost just one set all year in the round of 16 on a hard-court surface, though he went on to defeat Holger Rune at this stage of the Australian Open 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Rarely have we seen the Italian drop break points on the hard court of late, as he has won 93% of his service games on that surface this year.

Forcing the Italian into a second serve is one of the keys to upsetting him, with Sinner winning 83% of his first serve points on the hard court this year, but only 61% on the second.

Alexander Bublik is riding a big wave of momentum heading into Monday as he seeks a second trip to a Grand Slam quarter-final this year on the singles draw.

Three of his five sets against Paul went to a tiebreaker, but in the end, the man from Kazakhstan came through, claiming three break points without conceding one.

He’s currently on an 11-match winning run on the singles tour, capturing the Gstaad and Kitzbuhel tournaments before the start of the US Open.

On Saturday, he was often his own worst enemy, hitting 12 double faults, two more than he had in his first two encounters combined, while he has not lost an opening set since Jaume Munar stunned him in his first match at Wimbledon this year (4-6 6-3 6-4 6-7 2-6).

So far in 2025, Bublik has won 78% of his service games on the hard court and has been resilient when facing break points, saving 70% of the 100 that he’s faced on that surface.

There is a big contrast between his return and service game, with the 28-year-old winning 76% of his first service points on the hard court this year but only boasting a 23% mark in first return points.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

Second round: Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2

Third round: Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3

Alexander Bublik:

First round: Marin Cilic 6-4 6-1 6-4

Second round: Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 6-3

Third round: Tommy Paul 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-7 6-1

Head To Head

Halle Open (2025) – round of 16: Bublik wins 3-6 6-3 6-4

French Open (2025) – quarter-finals: Sinner wins 6-1 7-5 6-0

Halle Open (2023) – quater-finals: Bublik wins 7-5 2-0 retired

Libema Open (2023) – round of 16: Sinner wins 6-4 6-2

Miami Open (2021) – quatrer-final: Sinner wins 7-6 6-4

Dubai Open (2021) – round of 32: Sinner wins 2-6 7-6 6-4

In their second-round meeting at the Halle Open in June, Bublik often put Sinner on the back foot, hitting 15 aces, while winning 78% of his first serves.

At Rolland Garros, just a couple of weeks earlier, the Italian eased through, claiming six break points and not giving up a single one as he claimed a straight-sets triumph en route to making the final.

We say: Sinner to win in four sets

Bublik’s serve and momentum should give Sinner plenty to think about, but Grand Slams seem to be the time when the Italian brings it all together, and we expect his aggressiveness and groundstroke strength will eventually win the day.

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